2024 GOP Presidential Primary

Here is my first, barely formed take (or set of takes) on the 2024 Republican campaign for president. 

So far, only Donald Trump and, recently, Nikki Haley have announced their candidacies for the Republican nomination. The real primary, in the press and public opinion, is between Trump and Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is young and ambitious, plays hard for the Trump base, and has had electoral success in Florida; otherwise, there is nothing remarkable about him. Trump likes to point out that DeSantis is a Trump imitator. It's true. Word is that Trump wants to hit DeSantis over "likability." It's true, DeSantis is kind of a weird guy. He's not very likable. DeSantis seems to connect with voters, though, and he is the one Republican candidate giving Trump a run for his money. 

Both men reside in Florida. 

Trump is being investigated on multiple fronts and at different levels of government/prosecutors. He recently said he would still run for office even if indicted.

Finally, the election is a long time from now. Horse race analysis at this stage is an insider's game, essentially meaningless over the long-term.