Afghanistan vs Ukraine
Think back to summer 2021, when the news headlines were focused on the US' military withdrawal from Afghanistan. It was not a good look for the United States, which had spent 20 years and 2+ trillion dollars on the country, and was pulling out in a rapid and haphazard manner. The US was pulling out in full; there would be no residual forces would be left to assist the official government in its self-defense and administration of Afghanistan. Joe Biden was roundly criticized for the moves, and the United States looked impotent. It had failed to fulfill its diplomatic goals for Afghanistan, and the military/security situation was appearing to deteriorate. As the US military withdrew and a vacuum ensued, the Taliban rapidly advanced across the countryside. Taliban fighters took over localities one by one until they reached Kabul and recaptured the country. The Afghan military basically abandoned their posts and laid down their arms in the face of the Taliban offensive. Note that these posts were US-built military installations and their arms were state of the art American weaponry, now in Taliban hands.
Also note, for background, that the Taliban was our original enemy in Afghanistan. The war was a response to the 911 attacks, perpetrated by the terrorist group Al Qaeda, which was headquartered and found save haven in Afghanistan for training activities and planning attacks. The doctrine under Bush II became "you're either with us or against us" -- that the US would not distinguish between the people who planned the attacks and those who protect them -- which led to US/allied bombs falling on Taliban forts in northern Afghanistan in in the late fall of 2001. With the help of the US and its allies, a small rebel group known as the Northern Alliance took control of the whole country and formed a new government that would operate consistently with US priorities for the region.
I'm not one to say much on why the Taliban was so effective against the US-backed government of Afghanistan. Suffice it to say, the speed with which the Taliban retook control surprised everyone, including/especially the US intelligence community.
Compare this to the general narrative coming out of Ukraine. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine that aimed to take the capital, Kiev, within three days.
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Both surprises were taken as flashing indicators on American prowess/potency. The outcomes were so diametrical opposites that they can’t both be accurate proxies. So how do they compare?
In Afghanistan, their national military had been trained and was fully equipped by the United States. In the fact of an advancing Taliban, the military refused to defend its posts. The Taliban is a group of modern tribesmen with a conservative, religious philosophy of government and social life. They use force and coercion to impose their worldview on their fellow Afghans. Their recapture of the country was rapid and total.
In Ukraine, their national military has been equipped by the US, and received training to the extent necessary, but has fought tenaciously on their own for their homeland. The Ukrainians have benefited from Western intelligence sharing, helping them anticipate Russian advances and launch effective counterstrikes in their effort to expel the invading forces. The enemy in Ukraine is the Russian army; prior to this invasion, it was billed as the second best in the world. It's getting shredded by the Ukrainians wielding U.S. weaponry.
COMMONALITY: U.S. military hardware and training; no U.S. troops
KEY DIFFERENCE: national militaries' will to fight
UNEXPECTED: perceived threat posed by opponent -- Russian invaders seen as formidable; Taliban seen as likely to attempt to recapture the country but less formidable than the professionals trained by Americans.
Conclusions/Takeaways
The United States makes the best weaponry in the world, and its military is, doubtless, the most potent, professional fighting force in the world. There is plenty of American moral support and hardware stockpiles for the United States to support its interests around the world. Although American military hardware is sophisticated and deadly enough to be decisive, this UKR/AFG comparison highlights that its potency is not sufficient to make a difference in any given conflict.
What matters most - and this should not be news - is the defending army's will to fight. The Ukrainians are highly motivated to defend their independent country against Russian attempts to extinguish the Ukrainian state and identities. Russian attempts to undermine this spirit was unsuccessful. The Taliban, meanwhile, had the upper hand in the Afghanistan spirit contest. The Afghan army lacked the necessary determination and courage, rendering the sophistication of American military systems useless. The Taliban was successful in their efforts to buy off and otherwise undermine the morale and cohesion of the defending soldiers.
It remains to be seen why Russia has underperformed and why the Taliban over-performed.